Thiswas first posted on the AAIHRblog.
The H-1B is the mainUS professional visa. H-1B visa demandfollows the US unemployment rate. When the US unemployment rate is high and manyUS workers are out of work, H-1B demand is low. When the US unemployment is low and many US workers are employed, H-1Bdemand is high.
Last year 232,000H-1B petitions were field on the first and only day of the H-1B capwindow. This resulted in an H-1B lottery, wherebyUSCIS rejected 64% of otherwise approvable H-1B petitions. On the other hand, at the height of the USrecession in 2010 it took about300 days for the H-1B cap to reach the statutory limit of 85,000.
The tech industryis the largest user of H-1B visas. Stories of H-1B abuse plague the industry. Notably Disneyhas been sued by American workers who claim to have been forced to trainthe H-1B replacements.
The healthcareindustry uses H-1B visas too, although at much smaller rates that tech in spiteof the fact that the shortagesof US labor in these occupations are greater than in IT. Physical Therapists and Occupation Therapistsqualify for theH-1B. The US Department of Labor hasrepeatedly found that the importation of these Registered Nurses and PhysicalTherapists does not negatively impact the working conditions or salaries of USworkers.
With eachRepublican Presidential caucus or primary, DonaldTrump is inching closer to the Republican nomination. His positon on the H-1B visa appears to befluid. For months he has generally disfavoredany increase in visa quotas. Inparticular he has aimed his glare at the alleged abuses in the ITindustry.
It was newsworthythen at the Thursday March 3 debate when Trumpannounced, “I’m changing,” in response to a question about his H-1B position. After being pressed by moderator Megyn Kelly,Trump fleshed out his new position, “I’m softening the position because we haveto have talented people in this country.” This statement appeared to indicate the Trump would be in favoring ofallowing foreign-born US college graduates a path to work authorization.
The “softening” ofhis stance is not without controversy. In response, it appears that Trumpmay now have dialed back his “softening” and is now staking a middle position. Shortlyafter the debate, he reiterated his promise to end “abuse” in the H-1B system.
Perhaps Trump isplaying politics. One view is that Trumpmay think that he has the Republican nomination in hand and is therefore tackingtoward the center. This is astrategy that Republicans have used for a generation, ever since it was famouslyexecuted by then-candidate Richard Nixon.
A move to thecenter may mean that Trump would be willing to work with a healthcare industrythat has giantsupply shortages on the horizon and little hope to curing the shortageswith US labor.