The American Immigration Lawyers Association’s Business Committee Chairs met with the Department of State’s Charles Oppenheim last week. Based on the meeting, AILA predicts that EB-2 numbers will jump another six months when the March 2012 Visa Bulletin is published in mid-February. This jump of priority dates comes after several months of rapid progression of priority dates in the EB-2 category. The EB-2 progression will stop at that point until the summer. There was no prediction about the progression of EB-3 petitions.
Charles Oppenheim is the Department of State’s Chief of the Control and Reporting Division. He is the officer who is responsible for producing the Visa Bulletin each month. Both Mr. Oppenheim and the USCIS are surprised at how low the demand has been for employment-based green cards in 2011-12. Mr. Oppenheim says that about 10-15% of all employment-based green cards are Consular Processed and 85-90% are Adjustment of Status petitions.
There has been anecdotal evidence that there are many EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades, although the true impact on EB-3 priority dates is still unknown. The slow advancement of priority dates in early Fiscal Year 2011 was due in part by these upgrades. Mr. Oppenheim’s office does not clear an upgraded EB-3 number until the upgraded EB-2 petition is approved.
During most of the 2000s, internationally trained nurses made up about 10-15% of all new RNs that came on-line in the US. These numbers disappeared with the onset of retrogression in January 2008. The retrogression, now in its fourth year, has eviscerated the number of foreign-trained RNs.
In 2008, about 51,373 internationally educated RNs passed the NCLEX exam. In 2011, that number has been more than halved to 23,266, a drop of about 28,000. Fortunately for US healthcare users, US-educated RNs have filled half of the gap; about 14,000 more US-educated nurses now take the NCLEX-RN then did in 2008.
NCLEX-RN Test Takers | |||
---|---|---|---|
US Educated | Int’l Educated | Total | |
2008 | 158,385 | 51,373 | 209,758 |
2009 | 161,362 | 40,622 | 201,984 |
2010 | 167,597 | 30,178 | 197,775 |
2011 | 172,041 | 23,266 | 195,307 |
Source: NCSBN Fact Sheets
February 2012 Visa Bulletin | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
All Other Countries | China | India | Mexico | |
EB-2 | Current | 01JAN10 | 01JAN10 | Current |
EB-3 | 22FEB06 | 01DEC04 | 15AUG02 | 22FEB06 |
On Monday CGFNS will begin to offer an Expedited Review Service for their Credentials Evaluation Service (CES). This is an optional service for faster review. CGFNS will charge $150 for Expedited CES, unless the Application has previously been filed and is pending with CGFNS. Applicants with an existing CES can upgrade their CES to Expedited Review for $250.
The Expedited Service will result in a complete report within ten business days, provided that all requisite documents are at CGFNS. If all required documents are not with CGFNS, CGFNS will notify the applicant of any missing or insufficient documents. Once this deficiency is cured, CGFNS will issue the report.
There are several business immigration legislative initiatives that were proposed in Congress in late 2011. Whether some of these will be signed into law is an open question.
The US Senate presently is the tougher of the two chambers of the US Congress. The Senate is split half: there are 51 Democrats and 47 Republicans (and two Independents, who tend to vote with the Democrats). Because of the Senate’s procedural machinations, any single Senator can delay any bill by placing a “hold” on a bill.
The US House of Representatives is overwhelmingly Republican, 242-192. This allows bills to move much quicker through the House, provided that the Republican leadership is in favor of the bill.
For several years gridlock in the “do-nothing” Congresses has forestalled any meaningful immigration legislation. There are three bills that had action taking on them in December. While the odds are against these bills passing are long, they represent the best chance of positive immigration legislation in the first quarter of 2012. They also represent the best chance for positive immigration legislation in several years.
HR 3012 – The Fairness For High-Skilled Immigrants Act. This bill seeks to eliminate the individual per-country numerical quotas that exist in the allocation of employment-based green cards. The per-country restrictions would be eliminated over three years. The House passed the bill in November. The Senate seemed poised to pass the bill, until Sen. Grassley (R-IA) placed a hold on the bill in December. Sen. Grassley seeks to include several other amendments to the bill, all of which seem aimed at creating a more restrictive business immigration environment. Sen. Grassley’s history suggests that the chances of this bill passing are low unless he can be appeased.
S. 2005 – Irish Recognition and Encouragement Act of 2011. The IRE Act authorizes the Secretary of State to issue up to 10,500 E-3 visas per year to Irish nationals. In the last few years several “trade” visa programs have exempted special classes of nonimmigrants from the usual visa quotas and process. Since the middle part of the last decade, trade visa programs have been carved out for nationals of Chile, Singapore, and Australia. The IRE Act is being pushed by Sen. Brown (R-MA). Massachusetts traditionally is a strong-hold for pro-Irish immigration measures. Sen. Brown’s predecessor, the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA), had long championed Irish visa programs. With Sen. Brown facing a tough campaign, he may use this bill to curry favor with his deep cadre of pro-Irish constituents.
S. 1986 – STEM Visa Act of 2011 (S. 1986). This bill was introduced just before Congress began its latest holiday. A version of the STEM Act repeatedly has been introduced in several prior Congresses. While the STEM Act would be good for America and great for American business, the STEM Act has failed to gain traction in the past and is not expected to do so in this Congress.
Jan 2012 Visa Bulletin | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
All Other Countries | China | India | Mexico | |
EB-2 | Current | 01JAN09 | 01JAN09 | Current |
EB-3 | 01FEB06 | 15OCT04 | 08AUG02 | 01FEB06 |