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VISA BULLETIN FEBRUARY 2018: ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

The Department of State has just issued the February 2018 Visa Bulletin.  This is the fifth Visa Bulletin of Fiscal Year 2018.  This blog post analyzes this month’s Visa Bulletin.
February 2018 Visa Bulletin
Final Action Dates — Applications with these dates may be approved for their Green Card (Permanent Residency card) or Immigrant Visa appointment.
EB 
Class 
All Other  
CHINA       
INDIA     
MEXICO   
PHIL’PNES    
EB-1
C
C
C
C
EB-2
C
01OCT13
08DEC08 
C
C
EB-3
15SEP14
01DEC06 

01MAR16       
MU Law Analysis
All Other:  The EB-2 has been current for many years.  The EB-3 is also current and is expected to remain current for the foreseeable future.
China (mainland-born):  Both China EB-2 and EB-3 favorably progressed.  EB-2 improved by two months; EB-3 improved by five months.  The China EB-3 remains more favorable than Chinese EB-2.  The odd situation of China EB-3 progressing faster than China EB-2 will remain to be the case for the foreseeable future.
India:  Both India EB-2 and EB-3 progressed.  EB-2 by 2 weeks and EB-3 by 4 weeks, which is about what we expect that the monthly progressions will be in FY 2018.  MU suspects that EB-3 will not progress at any notable rate until at least the India EB-3 date moves past the Visa Gate date of August 2007.
Mexico: Mirrors All Other in analysis.
Philippines: The Philippine EB-3 date moved two weeks, which is its average in FY2018. Because of increased demand will expect slower progressions in the FY2018, progressing no more than 1-2 months per Visa Bulletin, unless I-485 processing times.  I-485 processing times may slow because of the new I-485 EB interview requirement.  If EB I-485 interview times slow, it will cause the DOS to free up more visas for Consular Processing petitions.

TRUMP BACKS DOWN ON AN H-1B THREAT TO 6+ YEAR H-1Bs

McClatchy reports that the Trump Administrationhas backed down from a threat that would have eliminated the ability of H-1Bworkers with long-pending green card cases to extend their H-1B status beyond 6years.  They had previouslyreported that the Trump Administration was considering the change to H-1Bextensions.
In a recentMU Law blog, we outlined the reasons that such a policy change was contraryto law.  We explained that The Trump Administrationwould have lost if challenged in court.  WhileSection 104 of AC21 might provide arguable cover for a Trump policy change, Section 106 of AC21 could not have been changed.  Therefore any policy change to Section 104would have simply resulted in USCIS granting H-1B extensions in one-yearincrements under Section 106.

McClatchyquotes an unnamed USCIS official who confirms our analysis and the analysis ofmany members of the business immigration bar:
“What we can say, however, is thatUSCIS is not considering a regulatory change that would force H-1B visa holdersto leave the United States by changing our interpretation of section 104(c) ofAC-21, which provides for H-1B extensions beyond the 6 year limit,” the agencytold McClatchy. “Even if it were, such a change would not likely result inthese H-1B visa holders having to leave the United States because employers couldrequest extensions in one-year increments under section 106(a)-(b) of AC21instead.”

WILL TRUMP ATTEMPT TO STRIKE DOWN 6+ YEAR H-1Bs ?

In what would be a direct attackagainst Indian H-1B workers, McClatchyreports that the Trump administration is considering an Executive Order or Memorandumthat would eliminate the ability of H-1B workers with long-pending green cardcases to extend their H-1B status beyond 6 years.  For the reasons outlined in this blog, MU Lawbelieves that while the Trump Administration may attempt this change ininterpretation, they would be unsuccessful once challenged in court. 
Background

In the 1990s H-1B status waslimited to 6 years.  After 6 years the H-1Bworker had to exit the US, even if the H-1B worker’s green card application was being delayed for reasons outside of their control, i.e. retrogression orprocessing delayed at INS (the predecessor to the USCIS).  Congress recognized this problem and solvedit with the American Competitiveness in the 21st Century Act(AC21). 
AC21 includes two provisions that allowH-1B extensions beyond 6 years.  These provisions, Sections 104 and 106, are only available to H-1B workers who have started thegreen card process. The sole purpose of these two provisions is to allow H-1B workers to extend their H-1B beyond 6 years.
Section 104 says that the AttorneyGeneral (now Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security) “may” extend anH-1B worker’s status beyond 6 years if the H-1B worker is the Beneficiary of anI-140 petition.  The USCIS can approvethese extensions in increments of no more than 3 years.

The other important provision, Section106, says that the USCIS “shall” issue one-year H-1B extensions to H-1B workerswho are either:

(1)   the Beneficiary of a PERM application that wasfiled more than 1 year earlier; or
(2)   the Beneficiary of an I-140 petition that wasfiled more than 1 year earlier.
Again, the entire purpose ofSections 104 and 106 is to allow H-1B workers to extend their H-1B beyond 6years.
Current Regulations

In January 2017, the USCIS released regulations further clarifying the applicability of Section 106.  These regulations clearly state that there are only four ways that the USCIS may not extend a 6+ year H-1B. None of the four exception criteria will apply to any H-1B holder with an approved I-140.
(2) H-1B [extensions beyond 6 years] may be granted in up to 1-year increments until either the approved permanent labor certification expires or a final decision has been made to:
    (i) Deny the application for permanent labor certification, or, if approved, to revoke or invalidate such approval;
    (ii) Deny the immigrant visa petition, or, if approved, revoke such approval;
    (iii) Deny or approve the alien’s application for an immigrant visa or application to adjust status to lawful permanent residence; or
    (iv) Administratively or otherwise close the application for permanent labor certification, immigrant visa petition, or application to adjust status.

Mistaken Interpretation of Sections 104 and 106

The McClatchy article and severalother blogs and news stories point to the “may” language in Section 104.  Their interpretation is that the “may”language gives the DHS Secretary unqualified discretion to deny 6+ yearH-1Bs. 
While MU Law believes that this is awrong interpretation of Section 104, and we will explain why in a future blogpost, it is irrelevant because Section 106 provides no such discretion to theDHS Secretary. 
Simply put, under Section 106 theUSCIS “shall” issue on-year H-1B extensions. 
Some have mistakenly interpreted AC21. The mistaken interpretation says that Section106 does not apply if H-1B workers have an approved I-140.  This interpretation is wrong.  There is no qualifying clause that compels USCISto only adjudicate green card petitions under Section 104.  
Some have pointed to the “surplusage canon“for the authority that Section 104 supersedes Section 106 when an H-1B workerhas an approved I-140.  The surplusagecanon is a doctrine of statutory interpretation that says that if one clause ina state makes the other redundant, courts should use a reading to eliminate theredundancy.  

This interpretation is wrong for severalreasons, but the primary one is that an interpretation where Section 104 supersedes 106, makes Section 106 essential.  
In other words, Beneficiaries have two ways toqualify: either Section 104 or Section 106.  There is no “surplusage”.
Conclusion

MU Law wants to be clear.  There is risk here.  The Trump Administration has proven to be willingto issue unlawful executive orders.  Theymay attempt to issue an unlawful executive order in this instance.
Having said that, a federal courtchallenge would almost surely be successful because of the alternative natureof Sections 104 and 106.

Latest news: highly-regarded immigrationattorney Greg Siskindhas just reported on Twitter that he believes that the Trump administrationis only considering changing their interpretation of Section 104.  Section 106 appears to be outside the scopeof the Trump Administration’s considered review.

NEW YORK STATE WILL REQUIRE BACHELORS FOR NURSES

NewYork State is the first state in the US to require a Bachelors of Sciencein Nursing for all nurses.  The BSN mustbe obtained within 10 years of practice, starting with nurses first licensed inNew York in Summer 2019.  All currently-licensedNew York State nurses are grandfathered into the current licensing systems anddo not have to obtain BSNs.
This new educational requirement mayallow foreign nurses who apply for nursing licenses in the US to apply for theH-1B visa.  The H-1B is normally of limitedvalue to foreign nurses because the USCIS often denies H-1B RN petitions.  However, with the new BSN requirement, theUSCIS may approve H-1B petitions filed on behalf of foreign-educated nurses.  It remains to be seen how the USCISupdates its policy in light of the updated New York State licensing requirement.

TRUMP TO ELIMINATE EADs FOR H-4 SPOUSES

In yet another anti-businessimmigration measure, the Trump demonstration has begun taking steps to eliminateH-4 EADs.  Some outlets are reportingthat the H-4 EAD rule could be rescinded as soon as February 2018.  Newsreports have been predicting the end of H-4 EADs for several months.
Now, the Administration has publishednotice that it intends to “modify” the program.  Mostexpect that the modification will be the elimination of the H-4 EADprogram. 
This rule is yet another examplethat Pres. Trump is not just against illegal immigration, he is against anyimmigration.  There is no rational basisto make this change, other than as a gift to his xenophobic followers.  He would eliminate hundreds of thousands oftaxpayers at a time when thefederal deficit is expected to increase by $1.4 trillion.

Traditionally when programs likethis end, the government allows those with valid EADs to continue to be able towork until the end of the EAD period. Accordingly, MU Law advise those H-4 spouses who are eligible for EADsto file immediately.  Likewise, if yourH-4 EAD is set to expire in the next few months, you should immediately file anEAD extension. 

VISA BULLETIN JANUARY 2018: ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

The Department of State has just issued the January 2018 Visa Bulletin.  This is the fourth Visa Bulletin of Fiscal Year 2018.  This blog post analyzes this month’s Visa Bulletin.
January 2018 Visa Bulletin
Final Action Dates — Applications with these dates may be approved for their Green Card (Permanent Residency card) or Immigrant Visa appointment.
EB 
Class 
All Other  
CHINA       
INDIA     
MEXICO   
PHIL’PNES    
EB-1
C
C
C
C
EB-2
C
01AUG13
22NOV08 
C
C
EB-3
15APR14
01NOV06 

15FEB16       
MU Law Analysis
All Other:  The EB-2 has been current for many years.  The EB-3 is also current and is expected to remain current for the foreseeable future.
China (mainland-born):  Both China EB-2 and EB-3 progressed about one month.  The China EB-3 remains more favorable than Chinese EB-2.  The odd situation of China EB-3 progressing faster than China EB-2 will remain to be the case for the foreseeable future.
India:  Both India EB-2 and EB-3 progressed about two weeks, which is about what we expect that the monthly progressions will be in FY 2018.  MU suspects that EB-3 will not progress at any notable rate until at least the India EB-3 date moves past the Visa Gate date of August 2007.
Mexico: Mirrors All Other in analysis.
Philippines: The Philippine EB-3 date moved one month, after not moving in the December 2017 Visa Bulletin.  Because of increased demand will expect slower progressions in the FY2018, progressing no more than 1-2 months per Visa Bulletin.

NEW DHS SECRETARY COMES WITH BAGGAGE

In July, President Trump elevatedGen. Kelly from his initial cabinet position, Secretary of Homeland Security,to Chief of Staff.  Despite plentyof time for golfing, the President then waited three months to nominate anew Secretary of Homeland Security.  Finally,in October, thePresident nominated Kirstjen M. Nielsen for the position. 

The Department of Homeland Securityoversees, among other sub-agencies, USCIS. USCIS, of course, reviews nonimmigrant and immigrant visa petitions.

Earlier this week, theSenate confirmed the nomination by the smallest margin ever for the position,62 to 37.  For comparison’s sake, Gen.Kelly received 88 votes in favor and only 11 against, when he was approved bythe Senate earlier this year.
Ms. Nielsen reportedly comes withbaggage.  She is caughtup in an ethics complaint.  Theallegation is that she used a private consultant to help guide her through theSenate review process.  The consultant,in turn, will now be seeking millions in federal contracts from Ms. Nielsen.
She reportedly was also not highlyregarded at her prior two positions in the White House and at DHS. Axiossaid that on Ms. Nielsen,

“Nielsen is not a beloved figure atDHS; just as she wasn’t inside the White House. She has a very sharp-elbowedapproach to doing business and doesn’t command anywhere near the respect thather predecessor, Kelly, did, according to more than half a dozen sources who’veworked with her.”

FOREIGN NCLEX RATES CONTINUE TO RISE

The latest 2017 NCLEX statisticsshow that foreign-trained nurses are taking and passing NCLEX at the highestrates since the peak years of 2006-2007. Almost 10,000 foreign-trained nurses have taken and passed the NCLEX in2017.  US NCLEX pass numbers have been tickingupward since 2014, although at a much smaller rate than foreign-trained nurses
These numbers are considerablylower than the peak years of last decade.  In 2006, 20,907 internationally educated RNspassed the NCLEX exam. In 2007, the volume jumped; 22,827 internationallyeducated nurses passed the NCLEX exam. With the onset of retrogression, 2008saw a slight decline; 18,905 internationally educated RNs passed the exam.
Year 
US
Fgn
2014
149,980
4,555
2015
154,955
5,382
2016
154,749
8,332
2017
157,000
9,200
Notethat the 2017 statistics are MU Law generated estimates.  The 2017 results will not be published untilJanuary.

VISA BULLETIN PROCESSING TIMES COULD SPEED UP IN 2018

NVC and Consular Processing green card processing times could speedup in 2018 due to an unintended consequence of the Trump administration’s new requirementthat all I-485,Adjustment of Status candidates must now undergo a green card interview 
Why? The USCIS will take longer to process Adjustments of Statusin 2018 because of the new interview requirement.  Because of the elongated I-485 processingtimes, USCIS will be able to process fewer green card approvals in 2018.  As a result, more green card numbers willspill over into Consular Process queue.
We often see this phenomenon in the summer months, as we approach theend of a fiscal year.  The DOS acceleratesthe Visa Bulletin in order to ensure that it uses the full allotment ofemployment-based visa numbers.  We explainedthis phenomenon in a 2016 MU Law FAQ.
Unsurprisingly, Charlie Oppenheim, the DOS’ guru on immigrant visanumber allocation, recognized that the new I-485 interview rule may delay I485green cards during his October2017 AILA “Check In With Charlie”.
MEMBERQUESTION #1: When does USCIS request and allocate a visa number to anindividual case?

ANSWER#1: Per the agreed upon policy, USCIS will only request an immigrant visanumber once all required processing is 100% complete, including conducting anyrequired interview, receipt of a complete medical exam, all requiredclearances, etc.
MEMBERQUESTION #2: Could you please confirm that a visa number that gets allocated toeach applicant who has successfully passed the interview should be preservedfor that applicant unless the applicant becomes ineligible for permanentresidence?

ANSWER#2: With regard to USCIS, though this is relatively rare, there are occasionsin which USCIS requests a number, but before the adjustment of statusapplication is fully processed, subsequent derogatory information comes to theofficer’s attention which impacts eligibility. As another example, USCISrecently sent RFEs out on numerous EB-3 India cases which had beenpreadjudicated in anticipation that the final action date for this categorywould advance during August and September. Visa numbers were provided for thosecases with the expectation that the applicants would respond to the RFEs intime to be approved before the end of the fiscal year. Unfortunately, hundredsof individuals did not respond in a timely manner, and USCIS determined that itwould be unable to complete adjudication of those cases prior to September 30,2017. Those cases were returned to “pending demand” status, and the visanumbers for those cases became available to other cases within FY 2017. USCISwas provided with a new number for each case once the requested evidence wasreceived and successfully processed. As a result of new visa number requestsfor several hundred of these cases, the final action date for EB-3 India is notcurrently advancing. For consular processing cases, a visa number is allocatedto a consular post for use during the month in which the visa applicant is originallyscheduled for a visa interview. If the visa is not used during that month (i.e.the case is placed in administrative processing), the number is returned to theVisa Office at the end of the month.

SF CHRONICLE: TRUMP TO ELIMINATE H-4 EADs

The San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Trumpadministration plans to rescind the H-4 EAD rule.  The H-4 EAD rule, which has existed for 2+years, allows H-4 spouses of H-1B workers to work, provided that the H-1Bprimary spouse has completed the I-140 stage of the green card process.  The Chronicle reports that 41,526 H-4 spousesearned work authorization through the program in the fiscal year throughSeptember 2016.
The recession of the H-4 EAD rule is being pressed because of alawsuit that questions whether USCIS ever had the legal authority to create the2015 enabling rule.  In a Motion madeduring the lawsuit, the administration hinted at the fact that they are in theprocesses of drafting a new rule that would rescind the H-4 EAD rule.
A new rule however would have to go throughthe notice-and-comment period, which would delay the implementation of the rule.  Notice and comment periods can take anywherefrom a few months, to many years. 
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