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MAY 2017 VISA BULLETIN: DETAILED ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

The Department of State has just issued the May 2017 Visa Bulletin.  This is the eight Visa Bulletin of Fiscal Year 2017.  This blog post analyzes this month’s Visa Bulletin.

May 2017 Visa Bulletin

Final Action Dates

Applications with these dates may be approved for their Green Card (Permanent Residency card).

Employ-
ment
based
All Charge-
ability 
Areas Except
Those Listed
CHINA-
mainland 
born
INDIA
MEXICO  
PHILIPPINES  
1st
C
C
C
C
C
2nd
08FEB13
22JUN08
C
C
3rd
15MAR17 
01OCT14
25MAR05 
15MAR17 
01JAN13
MU Law Analysis

All Other:  The EB-2 has been current for many years.  The EB-3 progression continues, moving an additional one month.  Consular processed EB-3 are effectively current.

China:   The China EB-2 date again moved up, but only a few weeks. The China EB-3 again date progressed about six weeks.  This was a smaller progression than the last few Visa Bulletins.  The China EB-3 continues to have a more favorable date than EB-2, as a result of many historical Chinese EB-3 workers “upgrading” their applications to EB-2.

India:  EB-2 India moved up about one day, which is the first one day progression that I can recall.  EB-3 India stayed the same, unfortunately.  

Mexico: Mirrors All Other in all aspects.

Philippines: EB-3 moved ahead by nearly four more months.  The Philippine EB-3 number essentially cleaned out all of the 2010, 2011, and 2012 EB-3 visas in about 6 months.  This is even more positive than we expected.  (Our note from September 2016: “This is consistent with internal MU Law analysis which sees this category progressing into 2013 by the Summer of 2017.”).  


USCIS LIMITS ENTRY-LEVEL H-1Bs FOR IT WORKERS; ANNOUNCES ADDITIONAL WORKSITE ENFORCEMENT

The USCIS hasissued a Policy Memorandum that will likely lead to denial of Computer-relatedpositions where the employer uses a Level 1 OES wage.  Accordingly, MU Law recommends that allclients use at least Level Two OES wages, or use alternative wage surveys.  The new Policy Memorandum takes immediate effectand will be used for all H-1B petitions: H-1B cap, H-1B extensions, H-1B transfers,and H-1B amendments.   
The March 31, 2017 Policy Memorandumrescinds a seventeen-year-old December 22, 2000 Policy Memorandum, issued byNebraska Service Center then-Director Terry Way.  There is little doubt that the new Policy Memorandumis a direct result of immigration restrictionists in the USCIS who feelemboldened by the new Trump presidency.  Itremains to be seen how restrictive USCIS officers will be as they interpret forthcomingcomputer H-1B petitions.
At virtually the same time, USCISalso has issued additionalmeasures aimed at perceived abuses in the H-1B program.  The April 3, 2017 press release says thatthese site visits will focus on:
  • Caseswhere USCIS cannot validate the employer’s basic business information throughcommercially available data;
  • H-1B-dependentemployers (those who have a high ratio of H-1B workers as compared to U.S.workers, as defined by statute); and 
  • Employerspetitioning for H-1B workers who work off-site at another company ororganization’s location.

LAST CHANCE FOR H-1B CAP PETITIONS

The H-1B cap requires that allH-1B petitions are received at the USCIS’ California Service Center or VermontService Center by Friday April 7, 2015. Below are some key points to keep in mind about this year’s H-1B cap:
-The USCIS makes no accommodationfor delays caused by couriers. Accordingly, MU Law will file the vast majority of its H-1B petitions onMarch 31 for delivery by April 3, which is the first day that H-1B petitionsare accepted.
-Premium Processing Service (PPS) hasbeen suspended, starting April 3, 2017. The suspension may last for six months. The suspension includes all H-1B petition filings, such as H-1B capcases, H-1B amendments, H-1B transfers, and H-1B extensions.
-In 2016, H-1B lottery results werenot finalized until June.  It may eventake the USCIS longer than in past years to notify all H-1B cap winners andlosers. 

H-1B CAP SUPPLY AND DEMAND V. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

In 2009, a mere 9,000 H-1Bs were received in the first month of H-1B processing.  It would be 264 days before the H-1B cap was reached.  In 2010, it took 300 days until the H-1B cap was reached.  In 2011, there were 236 days between the April 1, 2011 cap opening and the November 23, 2011 cap being reached.  Not coincidentally, the US employment rate from 2009-2011 ranged between eight and ten percent.

On the other hand, the H-1B cap was reached on the very first day in 2007, 2008, each year since 2013, mirroring the low unemployment rate.

















The lack of H-1B petition filings in years when the unemployment rate is high is compelling evidence against the argument that internationally-trained workers are being used to displace American workers and lower US workers’ salaries.

Why?  Because if H-1B visa labor was being used primarily to lower US workers’ salaries, then H-1B filing numbers would not correlate with US unemployment rates.  If anything, the reverse would happen because the incentive to reduce workers’ salaries is likely greater in a recessed economy, not less.

UPDATE: AILA CONFIRMS NO NEW POLICY CHANGE FOR TN-1 ADVANCE PRACTICE NURSES

Yesterday we posted about a newproblem, US CBPofficers were denying advance practice nurses’ applications for TN-1 visas.  The reports said that at least one US CBPofficer was quoting a “change in policy”. AILA has now confirmed that there is no policy change.  The law remains:  advance practice nurses qualify for TN-1visas.
In our blog post, we called on USCBP quickly to clarify whether there was or was not a policy change. To this extent, US CBPacted swiftly and should be commended for their quick action.

DO ADVANCE PRACTICE NURSES QUALIFY FOR THE TN-1 ?

Thereis a mystery afoot at the northern border. Last week reputable news organizations, suchas the CBC, reported that advance practice nurses were being told that theyno longer qualified for the TN-1 visa at the Canadian-Michigan border. 

TheTN-1 visa is a visa authorized under NAFTA. All of the jobs on the NAFTAoccupations list are eligible for TN-1 visas.  The NAFTA list is purposely vague.  It does not list job descriptions for the occupations.  Any rational job description includes advancepractice nurses under the registered nurse domain.  For instance, the Stateof Michigan law on registered nursing, includes advance practice nurses asa subset of registered nurse.  AdvancePractice nurses have been using the TN-1 for 20+ years.

USCustoms and Border Protection has been silent on the issue.  Immigration attorneys are unsure if thedenials are based on one rouge officer’s mistaken understanding of law, or ifit is a policy-wide decision.
Eitheranswer is problematic.  If it is a rogueofficer, then the US CBP ought to acknowledge their error, re-train theofficer, and announce that advance practice nurses are eligible for theTN-1.  

If not, the administration oughtto explain the rationale behind its policy-decision.  The administration’sown Department of Labor says that for US workers, ”job opportunities for advanced practice registered nursesare likely to be excellent.”  Protectionism may be a valid policy argumentin some areas, but plainly not for advance practice nurses, who are theforefront of treating American patients. 

MU’S MARIA SCHNEIDER NAMED TO CINCINNATI BAR ASSOCIATION BOARD OF TRUSTEES

MU Law is proud to announce that MU Law’s Maria Schneider has been named to the Board of Trustees of the Cincinnati Bar Association (CBA).  Schneider’s two-year term will begin on May1, 2017.  She will be officially inductedat the CBA’s AnnualMeeting on April 27, 2017.

Schneider founded, chaired, and nowVice Chairs the CBA’sImmigration Practice Group.  Twice,under Attorney Schneider’s direction, the Immigration Practice Group won the CBA’sIngenuity Award.  Schneider’s coverarticle on President Trump’s Executive Orders on immigration will be featuredin the CBA Reportin April 2017.
The CBA will reach its’ 150thAnniversary in January 2022.  The CBABoard will focus on “150 Prime,” a five-year strategically eruptive andpositively disruptive plan to prepare, engage, envision, and motivate successrepresenting attorneys in the Greater Cincinnati area.  The CBA has 3800 members throughout theGreater Cincinnati community.

H-1B CAP: PAST AND FUTURE DEMAND

This year’s H-1B filing date ofApril 1, 2017 is coming fast.  MU Lawpredicts that H-1B petitioners certainly will file in excess of 200,000petitions during the H-1B cap window of April 1-7, 2017.  Last year’s record filing total of 240,000may even be exceeded, although we have had reports of reduced demand this year.
When the USCIS receives more H-1Bpetitions than slots available it holds an “H-1B lottery”.  Last year, the USCIS held an H-1B lotterybecause it received over three times as many H-1B petitions as slots available.
If you are considering filing anH-1B cap-subject petition, MU Law urges you to begin that process now.
The H-1B is usually associated withIT positons.  Most of the H-1B slots are usedby IT professionals.  Many healthcareprofessions also qualify for H-1B status, including Physical Therapists,Occupational Therapists, Speech Language Therapists, and some RegisteredNursing positions.
International workers who areworking in the U.S. on an H-1B visa with another cap-subject employer are notsubject to H-1B cap. These cases are commonly referred to as “H-1B transfer”cases and may be filed at any time throughout the year.
Employees that need a”cap-subject” H-1B include:
* International students working onan EAD card under an OPT or CPT program after having attended a U.S. school
* International employees workingon a TN may need an H-1B filed for them in order for them to pursue a permanentresidency (green card) case
* Prospective internationalemployees in another visa status e.g. H-4, L-2, J-1, F-1
* H-1B workers with a cap exemptorganization
* Prospective internationalemployees currently living abroad
Past H-1B Demand:
Year:
H-1B Cap Numbers:
Date H-1B Cap Reached:
H-1B 2003 (FY 2004)
65,000
October 1, 2003
H-1B 2004 (FY 2005)
65,000
October 1, 2004
H-1B 2005 (FY 2006)
85,000
August 10, 2005
H-1B 2006 (FY 2007)
85,000
May 26, 2006
H-1B 2007 (FY 2008)
85,000
April 1, 2007
H-1B 2008 (FY 2009)
85,000
April 1, 2008
H-1B 2009 (FY 2010)
85,000
December 21, 2009
H-1B 2010 (FY 2011)
85,000
January 25, 2011
H-1B 2011 (FY 2012)
85,000
November 22, 2011
H-1B 2012 (FY 2013)
85,000
June 11, 2012
H-1B 2013 (FY 2014)
85,000
April 1, 2013
H-1B 2014 (FY 2015)
85,000
April 1, 2014
H-1B 2015 (FY 2016)
85,000
April 1, 2015
H-1B 2016 (FY 2017)
85,000
April 1, 2016
H-1B 2017 (FY 2018)
85,000
April 1, 2017

APRIL 2017 VISA BULLETIN: DETAILED ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

The Department of State has just issued the April 2017 Visa Bulletin.  This is the seventh Visa Bulletin of Fiscal Year 2017.  This blog post analyzes this month’s Visa Bulletin.

April 2017 Visa Bulletin

Final Action Dates

Applications with these dates may be approved for their Green Card (Permanent Residency card).

Employ-
ment
based
All Charge-
ability 
Areas Except
Those Listed
CHINA-
mainland 
born
INDIA
MEXICO  
PHILIPPINES  
1st
C
C
C
C
C
2nd
15JAN13
22JUN08
C
C
3rd
15FEB17 
15AUG14
24MAR05 
15FEB17 
15SEP12
MU Law Analysis

All Other:  The EB-2 has been current for many years.  The EB-3 progression continues, moving an additional two months.  Consular processed EB-3 are effectively current.

China:   The China EB-2 date again moved up one month. The China EB-3 again date progressed nearly six months, just as it did in the March 217 Visa Bulletin.  The China EB-3 continues to have a more favorable date than EB-2, as a result of many Chinese EB-3 workers “upgrading” their applications to EB-2.

India:  EB-2 India moved up about 3 weeks, while EB-3 India stayed essentially the same, unfortunately.  

Mexico: Mirrors All Other in all aspects.

Philippines: EB-3 moved ahead by nearly six more months.  The Philippine EB-3 number essentially cleaned out most of the 2010, 2011, and 2012 EB-3 visas in less than 6  months.  This is what we have expected.  (Our note from September 2016: “This is consistent with internal MU Law analysis which sees this category progressing into 2013 by the Summer of 2017.”).  

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S NEW EXECUTIVE ORDERS

On Monday, March 6, 2017, PresidentTrump issued an Executive Order titled “Protectingthe Nation from Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States.”   This Executive Order will go into effect onThursday, March 16, 2017.  Among otherprovisions, the Executive Order states individuals from six designatedcountries who are outside the United States and do not currently have a validvisa are not eligible to travel to the United States for 90 days. 
  • Iran
  • Libya
  • Somalia
  • Sudan
  • Syria
  • Yemen

Please note that Iraq has beenremoved from the list of countries effected by this Executive Order.  ThisExecutive Order does not apply to:
  • lawful permanent residents (greencard holders)
  • dual nationals who travel to the USon a passport issued by the non-designated country
  • individuals who hold a valid visa on theeffective date of the Order.  No visaswill be revoked.
  • foreign nationals traveling ondiplomatic visas
  • individuals granted asylum orrefugee status in the US before the effective date of the order

The US Department of HomelandSecurity and US Department of State have discretionary authority to issue visason a case-by-case basis to nationals of the six named countries when denial ofentry would cause undue hardship. 

Nationals from countries not namedabove can travel abroad but should expect additional delays and scrutiny at theairport when re-entering. Please note that the situation is fluid and maychange at any time.  If you have any questions, please contact our office.
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