Last week the SenateJudiciary Committee passed S. 744, the BorderSecurity, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act, or what is generallycalled Comprehensive Immigration Reform (CIR). While this was a significant step, we are still a longway from actually having CIR as law.
S.744 does manythings. This post will not talk discussthe specifics of the law but will focus on the next procedural steps that musthappen if CIR is to become law.
From here, the bill movesto the full Senate. The conventionalwisdom is that in June the full Senate will pass the bill. After theSenate acts is where it gets interesting.
What the House will do isa wide-open question. Some think thatif the Senate passes the bill with a healthy majority, then the House will fallin line. While the Housewill have its own bill, it may look a lot like S.744, if S.744 passes thefull Senate with wide support. For example,a 70/30 pass rate means that a lot of Republicans and Democrats have voted forit, which means strong bipartisan support.
If this happens we wouldexpect to see House action before their recess in early August. Pres. Obama will certainly sign the bill;there is zero chance that he will veto it. So the next key date is mid/late June to seewhat the full Senate will do.
On the other hand if theSenate cannot get to the “magic 70 number” then the House may craft a dramaticallydifferent bill, and predictions become muddy. If the House starts from scratch with its ownbill this could drag on for a while.
At this point the odds are50/50 that we get CIR in 2013, and the odds improved significantly with the SenateJudiciary Committee’s actions.