The Department of State has just released the October 2012 Visa Bulletin. It is somewhat more pessimistic than was expected, although some of the retrogression may be based on the DOS’ desire to slow the applications in October 2012. As we explained in a recent post, the visa number demand is greatest every October. By slowing the application flow in October, it allows the DOS and USCIS to efficiently allocate adjudicating officers’ time.

The biggest surprise is that the India EB-2 number has retrogressed all the way back to September 2004. This is likely a very conservative visa number and we would expect the number to move forward in the next few months. As a point of reference, the November 2010 Visa Bulletin was May 2006 and there simply cannot be that many EB-2 immigrant visas pending from 2004-2006, in spite of a likely uptick in EB-2 conversions from EB-3 priority dates. Applicants with India EB-2 priority dates from 2004-2006 have been able to apply for their Adjustments of Status without much impediment for two years.

The All Other and Philippine EB-2 date (January 2012) is where we expected it to be. Our sense is that this date will also move forward in the upcoming months and may become current.

The EB-3 numbers continue their very slow progressions. These numbers are only noteworthy by their consistency. MU Law expects this trend to continue into the future.


October 2012 Visa Bulletin
All Other Countries China India Philippines
EB-2 01JAN12 15JUL07 01SEP04 01JAN12
EB-3 22OCT06 08FEB06 15OCT02 01AUG06