Theretrogression cut-off in the EB3 category pushed back priority dates to2020. While a retrogression is nevergreat news, this retrogression is not as dramatic as it might seem at firstlook. Our sense is that when the October2023 visa bulletin is published, it will show an EB-3 (non-India and non-China)with a mid-2022 priority date. However,because the Department of State is not forthcoming with their demand and usagedata, please assume large error bars around our projection.
Asignificant retrogression of priority dates is common nearly every summer. Visa numbers began to run out towardSeptember 30, which is the end of the fiscal year. The DOS is trying to use the last of the140,000 annual employment-based visas in September. (Note- in some years the employment-basedvisa quota is greater than 140,000). While the DOS could theoretically release all 140,000 immigrant visas onOctober 1 every year, they do not do this so that there is a steady stream ofimmigrant visas throughout the year.
InOctober an additional 140,000 EB visas will be allocated, which is why weexpect the dates to progress again. Again, it is difficult to be too precise with an October 2023 EB-3projection because we do not know too much about the DOS’ demand and usagedata.