Lastweek’s October2021 Visa Bulletin was hotly anticipated. Over the summer it became apparent that the 140,000 employment basedvisa quota wouldat least double in fiscal year 2022, which starts October 1, 2021.  The expectation was that IV dates would leapforward.

Andyet when the October 2021 was released not only did the dates stay the same,but the VB included a note at the end,

Employment Third:

Worldwide:A final action date could be imposed as early as November

China: Aretrogression of this date could occur as early as November

India: Aretrogression of this date could occur as early as November

Mexico:A final action date could be imposed as early as November

Philippines:A final action date could be imposed as early as November

Withthat we now expect retrogression in all EB categories starting in November. CharlieOppenheim, who runs creates each month’s Visa Bulletin for the Department ofState, said as much in his monthly YouTube video broadcast. 

Thereappears to be two reasons for this change in expectation:

-Therewere many more I-485, Adjustments of Status filed in FY 2020 than anyone in theDOS expected.  Likewise, the USCIS isapproving more I-485s.  This is adisappointing answer because most of these I-485s were filed in October andNovember 2020.  This insight should havebeen apparent much earlier.

-TheDepartment of State knows that their overseas consulates and embassies have theability to dramatically increase processing of consular processed visas.  This is good news for overseas for consularprocessed immigrant visas, like nurses, because it implies that the DOS isholding back immigrant visas instead of allowing the entire quota to be used byAOS cases.  On the other hand, it is surelydisappointing if you are in the US awaiting a visa. 

MULaw’s interpretation is that if the overseas consulates and embassies donot dramatically increase their visa issuance, that these visas should be putback into the AOS queue later in FY 2022.